Volatility of air fare prices

It's up. It's down. It's all about supply and demand. Buying air fare is like buying shares in the stock market. It is so difficult (and scary) to know when to jump in and buy.  Everything is timing. And like the stock market, you don't want to buy (when the price is) high.

For lack of a better hobby, I've been studying air fare prices to popular destinations over the last couple of years. It's interesting. Ok, interesting in a patterning and nerdy kind of way.

The pattern I have seen is that each airline has a baseline, a standard, fair price to each route.  Then, depending on when you buy, it can be more or less expensive than the baseline.

Let's say, for example that a one way fare price is $200 (plus taxes and fees).  You might see that price available 5 months in advance of the route. But the closer you get to the travel date, you will see the fare go up and down. Whether it's called a "seat sale" or a price adjustment or whatever, it doesn't matter. So suddenly you might be looking at the airfare price 3 months out and it's $169.  It's now up to you knowing it could go lower, and for certain it will go back up. What you need to determine is what price you will be happy at. Are you a gambler? How low will it go? Will you kick yourself if it goes up to $240?

One thing you can be sure of , is that if there is a national/calendar holiday, demand for air fares around that date will be higher than average. (ie. Thanksgiving)  So, if you wish to find a bargain, you need to book early, or be prepared to book an alternate date for your flight. Sometimes it's as easy as looking at the day before or the day after your first choice.

I record the lowest price I've ever seen on a particular route and keep that in mind if I plan to buy. For example, a one way flight from Winnipeg to Vancouver is generally around $200, but sometimes it is offered at $149. The best I've ever seen is $124. So, with that knowledge in mind, I would be able to make better bargain-hunting decisions.

Air Canada is the only airline, that I use that offers to send you automated fare alerts for prices that you can set yourself. For example, if you receive their monthly newsletters and sales, you can pre-set your preferences. You may choose 4 or 5 different routes to watch. You set your price and it e-mails you every time your specified price is met on a route! It's much easier than checking prices yourself daily. I have an alert for Winnipeg to Maui. If the one way fare price falls to $249 I receive an e-mail.  Getting that cheery e-mail is a nice pick me up on an average ho-hum day even if I can't go to Maui.

I have always found the best air fare prices are purchases directly from the airline. And when you use their website, there are no ticketing fees (except for Allegiant who charges about $17 each to book on-line) with the big airlines like Delta, Air Canada and West Jet.

The best prices, in general, are for average, boring days like Tuesdays or Saturdays, NOT around national holidays and are purchased between 6 and 8 weeks in advance of the flight. But it's all ultimately up to the individual buying the air fare. What blend of date, time and price is right for you?